Features
WyAyeScout: How Eddie Howe transformed Newcastle United
Written by Kev Lawson
In the latest feature of a new series for nufc.co.uk, WyAyeScout founder and editor Kev Lawson gives us a breakdown of stats behind Eddie Howe's first year in charge of Newcastle United…
It's been just over a year since Eddie Howe was appointed manager of Newcastle United.
Since taking charge, he's overseen a revolution, taking a team most pundits had written off as relegated last season and transforming them into a side that currently sits in third in the Premier League.
Let's take a look at how the gaffer has transformed the team in his 13 months on Tyneside:
This run of results wasn't the result of bad luck - the team's performances in both attack and defence were well below league averages. Turning performances and results around was a mammoth task for Howe and his coaching staff.
Taking a close look at the team's underlying expected goals numbers reveals just how bad things had become.
Expected goals (xG) is a mathematical model that is designed to measure the likelihood that a chance will be scored. It uses millions of historical shots from professional footballers of all finishing abilities, from locations across the pitch to create a robust average that measures the value of a chance to score between 0 (no chance) and 1 (a certain goal).
It's fair to say that when Howe took charge in November 2021, United's long term xG trends were not healthy.
Like all metrics, xG has its limitations and is best used across a number of games to show when a run of good or bad form may owe more to above or below average finishing.
Prior to Howe's arrival, United's low block defence had swiftly declined, making it much harder for the team to grind out the single-goal victories which had become a hallmark way to earn three points under previous head coach Steve Bruce.
Given the mix of poor confidence and performances across the group, turning United around could not be something that Howe and his team could achieve overnight.
The first milestone on the road to recovery was a confidence-building 1-0 victory over Burnley at St. James' Park, but for the team at WyAyeScout, the 1-1 draw with Manchester United was the first time that Howe's vision for the Magpies really came together.
After experimenting with a few different shapes in his first couple of months in charge, the 4-3-3 against the Red Devils just after Christmas was the first time Howe's Newcastle team successfully pressed their opponents in the team shape that would become the team's trademark.
After a desperate draw with Watford and a poor exit to Cambridge in the FA Cup, the Magpies were able to use January's transfer window to add quality and experience to the team.
The combination of exceptional coaching by Howe and his team and the sensible addition of experienced, talented Premier League-ready players had a dramatic impact on results.
With the players inspired by the rapturous roar from the Toon Army both home and away, and powered by some spine-tingling displays from Wor Flags whenever Howe led the team out at St. James' Park, United's momentum was building.
The team's new pressing style played a huge part in getting the crowd more involved, more often, in games. Without the ball, United were now in the face of their opponents all over the pitch.
It wasn't just without the ball that Howe's team were improving. When it came to the attack, United had begun their journey to becoming one of the Premier League's most dangerous teams from set pieces.
The sharp improvement at both ends of the pitch was reflected in United's underlying xG numbers.
With relegation avoided with ease, minds turned to the 2022/23 season and a brighter future on Tyneside. In a summer filled with transfer speculation, United secured the signatures of a number of targets.
After a successful pre-season, the current campaign started with a flurry of draws that swiftly became a flood of wins as the team's performances took another step forward.
After a full summer working with the squad, the most noticeable improvement was in the intensity and quality of United's high-pressing style.
With the 4-3-3 system now bedded in, individual players are starting to reap the rewards of Howe's consistent tactical approach, particularly on the right flank.
United's good form was pivotal to the inclusion of Kieran Trippier, Nick Pope and Callum Wilson in England's World Cup Squad. In fact, Newcastle's number nine has had a stellar season so far.
The result of these post-summer improvements has seen United lifted to the heights of third in the Premier League table - a position that few pundits or experts, WyAyeScout included, would have seriously predicted before the season.
Right now, it's no exaggeration to say that United are among the best in the league. While it's the players that cross the white line onto the pitch, it's Howe and his team that ensure they are fully prepared and ready for every match.
If this is what they're capable of in just a year, then the future looks as bright as it ever has for Newcastle United.